Turkeys, Flash Freezing and Cafeteria Trays

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swanson_dinner2In late 1953 the Swanson brothers had a glut of turkey.  Swanson were turkey wholesalers and had overestimated the market.  They thought they would make a killing that year on Christmas turkeys sales. Not so much. So now they had 235 metric tons of turkey riding around the U.S. in refrigerated rail cars and the executive team was wondering what to do.  Meanwhile the CFO is showing charts of what it cost to have all those turkeys rolling around on refrigerated rail cars per day.

Gerry Thomas, a sales executive at Swanson, had been flying around the country and had just seen what Pan American airlines was doing with compartmentalized in-flight food offerings.  He and the executive team at Swanson coupled this notion with Clarence Birdseye’s new flash freezing technique, and then added the catchy product label “TV Dinner” that fit beautifully with the cultural explosion of television.  Their great market opportunity was the eight million moms who were joining the workforce after WWII, who were also enjoying an abundance of electrical home appliances like ovens, refrigerators, freezers, and of course televisions.

Turkey Glut Crisis + New Technology + Market Inflection = Bonanza of Realized Value

Swanson thought they might sell five thousand units the first year.  They sold ten million at .98 cents each.  Big hit, and now you understand how the intersection of technology, inspiration, marketing and resources made it happen.  But does that formula work again today?  Here’s the difference now:

Resources are scare, not abundant: From water to textiles to lumber, the availability and premium placed on the natural resources we use to create the consumer products and comestibles are in high demand and, in the case of fossil fuels and water particularly, are increasingly precious.

Talent is global, not local: Historically if you had a local workforce that was obedient, diligent, and brought expertise and skill to bear executing on top-driven strategies, you had competitive advantage.  The future is most certainly now in terms of the ability to connect need with a globally-dispersed labor force –  highly talented, motivated, and comparatively cheap by U.S. standards.  And all connected by the cost of the internet, $0.

Innovation is democratized, not top-driven: No longer can firms rely on the the wisdom of a handful of insightful strategists at the top of a pyramid, when meanwhile companies like Rabobank or Best Buy are doing a better job of catering to customer need by creating mechanisms to actively listen to, and incorporate the interests of customers, and know-how of line personnel.

Never let a good crisis go to waste.

Turn the small screws

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think-small-imageThink big! Blue sky! Anything is possible! Let’s build the next iPhone. Or better, let’s disrupt our own business model with a seismic market change, like iTunes. No…wait, like Spotify!

This kind of collaborative bluster is akin to throwing a Hail Mary in the waning seconds. Possible, yes. Probable, no.

I was reminded of a valuable trick from Seth Kahan the other day on how to build predictable innovation. More often, it’s in the small tweaks of what you already know, not the big grandiose changes – that generates consistent wins by building incremental value.

Indeed, Seth does have lessons on how to identify big-picture shifting market inflection points and how to capitalize on them. But the kind of value building that leads to reliable market leadership is about parsing out the pieces of our value chain, examining each, and tweaking steadily toward constant excellence.

I once had a conversation with Patagonia founder and CEO Yvon Chouinard who told me he has yet to find a business or product problem that cannot be solved by increasing quality. Patagonia is a company that has built a legacy of consistent product integrity and innovation. From rock climbing pitons to the source of their cotton to the dying processes they use, Patagonia has been chasing excellence and success for over forty years.

“We have 1,500 styles of clothing and shoes, and we follow every one of those products all the way from the farmer to the very end to make sure there’s no unintended consequences of our actions and it’s as clean as we can possibly make it.”
– Yvon Chouinard

In that same spirit, Kahan’s advice is to look at all the parts that contribute to the whole – the supplier, the transport, the assembly, the quality assurance, the delivery, point of sale, customer service, etc… and peel away the layers of each part of the process. In doing so, you’ll find something to improve. Always. Don’t think big. Think small. Innovation will follow.

The New Reciprocity: Give and Forget

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GivingI was listening to a podcast yesterday of Adam Grant talking about his new book Give and Take. If you’re familiar with the book, in it he writes about “Dormant Ties.” Dormant ties are those people whom you have known in your life – professionally or personally – but have fallen off your radar and disappeared into your past. These are also people with whom you can easily kick-start the relationship because you have a long history and can skip the getting-acquainted part of relationship building. They will have an emotional memory of you already.

As Grant writes in his book, researchers working with executives asked them to solicit business advice not only from those close and respected colleagues, but also from former colleagues with whom they had no contact with for at least three years. Once the executives begrudgingly agreed to contact two former colleagues (their dormant ties) and ask a few questions of advice, they discovered it was the dormant ties who offered the most valuable and insightful bits of advice and information, not those closest to them.

This morning I was listening to Ken Coleman‘s podcast in which Tim Sanders was describing his “morning devotional.”  Each morning, before checking email – the electronic debt machine – he pauses to reflect and give thanks to people who have been greatly helpful to him recently. Then he reaches out to two people in his life to help. Maybe it’s an introduction, or a recommendation, or an insight he can offer in their work. Whatever it is, Tim tries to make it relevant and valuable, and never with any expectation of return. He calls this exercise Give and Forget.

Here’s the mash-up idea. Resusitate a dormant tie from your past and instead of asking for a favor, give something: an idea, a recommendation, an introduction, a compliment…and then let go. The point of this exercise is not to trade value with someone from your past, or mine your network. The point is to add value to the community. I’m making a habit of it.

No Regrets

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NO-REGRETSIf you’ve ever heard Marshall Goldsmith speak, you’ll know he has a signature bit near the end of his presentation in which he asks you to imagine you are 95 years old and preparing to die. But before you die, you can speak to your younger self and provide advice. In his talk Goldsmith advises: Be Happy Now, Focus on Friends and Family, and Live Out Your Dreams. The last one always gets me. It’s a reminder to go after whatever audacious goal you have – play the drums, speak Japanese, scuba in Aruba, or whatever drives your mojo.

I came across this book, The Top Five Regrets of the Dying, recently. In it Bronnie Ware, a palliative care nurse, recounts spending the final three to six weeks with dying patients and shares what they have to say about living. The following is straight from her website:

1. I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.
“This was the most common regret of all. When people realize that their life is almost over and look back clearly on it, it is easy to see how many dreams have gone unfulfilled. Most people had not honored even a half of their dreams and had to die knowing that it was due to choices they had made, or not made. Health brings a freedom very few realize, until they no longer have it.”

2. I wish I hadn’t worked so hard.
“This came from every male patient that I nursed. They missed their children’s youth and their partner’s companionship. Women also spoke of this regret, but as most were from an older generation, many of the female patients had not been breadwinners. All of the men I nursed deeply regretted spending so much of their lives on the treadmill of a work existence.”

3. I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings.
“Many people suppressed their feelings in order to keep peace with others. As a result, they settled for a mediocre existence and never became who they were truly capable of becoming. Many developed illnesses relating to the bitterness and resentment they carried as a result.”

4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends.
“Often they would not truly realise the full benefits of old friends until their dying weeks and it was not always possible to track them down. Many had become so caught up in their own lives that they had let golden friendships slip by over the years. There were many deep regrets about not giving friendships the time and effort that they deserved. Everyone misses their friends when they are dying.”

5. I wish that I had let myself be happier.
“This is a surprisingly common one. Many did not realize until the end that happiness is a choice. They had stayed stuck in old patterns and habits. The so-called ‘comfort’ of familiarity overflowed into their emotions, as well as their physical lives. Fear of change had them pretending to others, and to their selves, that they were content, when deep within, they longed to laugh properly and have silliness in their life again.”

Have a Memory of the Game Before it Even Starts

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Wayne_RooneyWayne Rooney is widely regarded as an astonishing soccer player – one of the greatest playing the game today. Also mercurial, brooding, even thuggish at times. He was recently banned for a game for intentionally kicking Montenegro’s Miodrag Dzudovic. As a kid he played non-stop – in the streets, in the house, in the backyard. And when he couldn’t play, he dreamed of playing soccer.

Rooney does this today before every match:

“Part of my preparation is I go and ask the kit man what color we’re wearing — if it’s red top, white shorts, white socks or black socks. Then I lie in bed the night before the game and visualize myself scoring goals or doing well. You’re trying to put yourself in that moment and trying to prepare yourself, to have a ‘memory’ before the game. I don’t know if you’d call it visualizing or dreaming, but I’ve always done it, my whole life… you need to visualize realistic things that are going to happen in a game.” (David Winner interview)

If you can actually practice, great. But imagining practicing is just about as good. In a well-known experiment Australian researcher Alan Richardson divided about 90 students into three groups. With the first group he asked them to ignore basketball and come back at the end of the month. He asked the second group to come into the gym 5 days a week and practice their free throws for twenty minutes, trying to get better at their shots as best as they could. The third group he asked to come into the gym 5 days a week and for twenty minutes imagine shooting free throws – to sit in the gym and visualize each attempt, to develop a pre-shot routine, “see” and “feel” the ball bouncing and then leaving their hand arcing to the basket. If they missed, they had to visualize an adjustment. They were also asked to be constantly striving to improve.

At the end of the month all three groups had to come into the gym and shoot 100 free throws.

  • Group 1 didn’t improve
  • Group 2 got 24% better
  • Group 3 got 23% better

I had an interveiw with Rich Herbst, VP for Learning and Leadership Development at Teletech, who emphasized the use of simulations to help develop call center operators to perform better on the job. A former F-14 pilot, Herbst described how he had thousands of hours practicing in simulators and on airfields before he actually landed an F-14 on an aircraft carrier. In our interview he described the experience of landing on a carrier:

“I had done it so much that it was like it was kind of like muscle memory. And so you stop thinking about the stress of what you’re doing, and training takes over. And so I think in the best types of training that you have, regardless of what it is that you’re doing in life, if you can get yourself to a place where you’ve learned it so well that when you experience it in real time.”

Think about what you’re trying to accomplish, or get better at. Are you wishing it, or rehearsing it in your mind, and then actively doing it – prepared to fail or succeed but always learn.

The Wobegon Effect

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80percent

One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.
– Bertrand Russell

Skiing this past weekend, I thought I might learn something by watching myself ski. I stopped in the middle of the trail and asked my friend to take a short video of myself. Ack. It was helpful, but painful to watch. There’s a reason we don’t like to listen to our own voice recorded, or watch video of ourselves. We’re much better in our minds.

It’s an odd thing that the more inept we are at something, the better we think we are. And inversely the better we are, the more likely we are to undervalue our skills.

  • In a study of self-assessment in classrooms, students performing in the bottom 25% described themselves as performing above the 60th percentile
  • 87% of MBA students at Stanford University rated their academic performance as above the median
  • In 1976, the College Board did a survey and discovered in ratings of leadership ability, 70% of the students put themselves above the median
  • The same study asked participants to rate themselves in their ability to get along with others, an indication of their emotional fluency – 85% put themselves above the median, and 25% of students rated themselves in the top 1%
  • A 1981 study of american drivers found that 93% rated themselves among the top half of skilled drivers on the road.

All statistical impossibilities. Another unfortunate truth is that the less competent we are at problem solving, gaining particular skills, or storing knowledge, the more we overestimate our abilities. Some researchers think it’s because we don’t know what we don’t know.

I had an interview with Rick Warren, pastor of Saddleback Church, one of the largest in the country, who emphasized the value of humility in developing oneself. As he described, the key is not to think of humility as a self-deprecating exercise. Humility is not another way to say, “I suck.” It’s a way to identify, with honesty, those beliefs and behaviors which are inhibiting our own growth and those around us. As he described, start with an honest sense of humility, and a willingness to ask hard questions:

Often we are so afraid of appearing like we don’t know it all, we end up not knowing it all. I’d rather admit I don’t know it and learn it than to pretend that I know it all… Asking questions is a mark of humility because you can learn from anybody if you know the right questions.
– Rick Warren

Taking the long view

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fixitfredIn October of 2003 in Atlanta at a global company meeting, as the new CEO of Schering-Plough, Fred Hassan stood on stage before thousands of sales professionals from around the world and said:

If you are in a position of making a sale and doing something you are not comfortable with – something you won’t feel proud of later, or walking away, I want you to walk away. As your CEO I’m telling you to choose long-term trust and integrity over short-term gain.

He had only been named CEO in April of that same year. His philosophies and opinions were not yet well known throughout the organization. He also knew he was taking a risk in alienating some of the successful sales professionals who were making a killing on short-term transactional quarterly commissions checks. In addition to providing this message of integrity focus, he led the change of the commissions structure to incentivize longer term relationships with customers. He knew some salespeople would leave, and they did.

But something else happened. Starting in that spring of 2004, Schering Plough enjoyed over four years of double-digit growth. Then came 2008, and the growth ran dry for most everyone. Yet even during this period Schering-Plough continued to innovate and introduce new pharmaceuticals to the market, as well as continue to return consistent earnings for shareholders and community. Schering-Plough hired and retained those sales types who took the long view.

In our conversation, Fred put it this way, “People want to do something right and be a part of something bigger than themselves… I didn’t expect it, but I got a long standing ovation that day.”

Start with Shared Values

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If you work in a big company, with people around the world operating in different cultures, on different projects, with different skillsets and different world views, how can you create shared conviction and vision?

Don Vanthournout is the Chief Learning Officer of Accenture, a premier global management-services and advisory organization with more than 259,000 associates in almost fifty different countries around the world. Accenture is perhaps not unlike other multinational companies except that it has no clear headquarters. Accenture’s CEOs over the past few years have been based in Paris, Boston, Palo Alto, and Dallas. Its executives operate globally, and its associates are expected to adopt a nimble and global world view. They’re supposed to remain effective and adhere to the Accenture philosophy regardless of where they work. How can such a globally dispersed workforce, with no clear headquarters and a CEO with no nationalistic identity, have a strongly held, shared vision?

In October, 2011, I had an interview with Don Vanthournout. In that conversation, he explained that the company starts with a simple and clear set of values as its behavioral principles. Accenture ingrains these values in all associates, so regardless of where they are working in the world, the associates’ values and behavior are guided by them. As he put it,

we build core skills into our people on how we want them to collaborate and communicate with each other, how we want them to manage projects, but we’re never going to be able to guess every situation that might confront them. And so the why of why you spend so much time focusing on the value side of things is so that we can develop people who, when they’re thrown in that situation that they might not have been prepared explicitly for from a content standpoint, will from a contextual standpoint know how to operate in alignment with what Accenture values.

Next, according to Vanthouronout, Accenture operates under a principle of facilitating job mobility and growth. As the Chief Learning Officer, Vanthouronout knows people participate at their highest level of engagement and collaboration when they are doing work they love. When a position becomes tedious, he says, it’s time to look for growth opportunities. Accenture recognizes the need for constant development, and creates opportunities for them to fill that need. Vanthouronout’s recommendation is to start local—ask friends and colleagues for advice in developing oneself. He has found that the strongest professional developers trust the insight of their colleagues and take action to gain new and diverse skills.

When it comes to aspiration, those around us will understand and help place us in developing positions only if we voice our opinions and ideas about our own best career trajectory. Accenture has worked to build a culture in which managers are expected to identify and listen closely to the development aspirations of associates, with the recognition that those best placed will ultimately perform at their highest level and realize their greatest confidence.

Think before you drop in

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dropinTrue story: a couple of years ago a friend came over to visit and chat about some business ideas. My daughter was napping upstairs, my wife was out running, and the two of us were sitting in lawn chairs in the backyard watching our two boys (6 and 8 at the time) try to “drop in” on a skateboard into the half pipe ramp we had built together.

“Dropping in” is an audacious challenge. Imagine this for a moment. Although the top of the ramp is *only* four and a half feet high, when perched up there with your back foot bracing the board and your front foot poised to pounce and slam the deck down on the ramp and race across the plywood – trust me – it’s a scary drop.

So there we are, watching the boys attempt, and fail, at “dropping in.” David says to my son Charlie, “Gimme the board.” Then gangly and tall David takes the skateboard and places himself in position on the top deck of the ramp, narrows his eyes, and drops in. And while dropping, he contorts his leg underneath himself and collapses at the bottom of the ramp.

“I broke my leg,” he says. Of course he did. I watched the entire thing and clearly saw him fall upon his twisted right leg. And yet all I can say is, “Really?” He says again, “I broke my leg.” David is calm, lucid, knowing. Right, of course he did. I saw it happen. Yet stunned in disbelief that this has happened right here, in my backyard, before my eyes, I say again, “Really?”

David says, “You gotta call 911.”

He’s right, and with a broken leg lying on the deck he also seems to be calling the shots. I stare at him wondering why he isn’t screaming.

David then calmly asks my son Will for some ice. Will races inside to the kitchen and returns with a single ice cube. I ask my son Charlie to fetch my mobile phone – which he does – and then I stand there, hesitating, holding my phone and asking David yet again, “Really?”

I call 911. Within minutes a platoon of emergency vehicles and EMTs arrive. The lead responder observes David on the skateboard ramp and shakes his head quietly in amused wonder. Then they pack him up – splint, rolling emergency bed, the works. He, indeed, broke his leg in several places and spent a few days awaiting, and then recovering from surgery.

I write quite a bit about the importance, and value, of aspiration. That is, to aspire to a skill or an improved version of oneself is a wonderful and important part of growth and development. How else might we become a greater person without aspiration? We have to envision possibilities before we can realize them.

Yet the key thing here is to remember the steps to get there. It takes hard, conscientious, dedicated practice and work before we arrive at the ability to “drop in” or something similarly difficult that we aspire to.

Here’s a tip from David Taylor: what we aspire to may not be immediately transferable just because we want it so.

What do you do when predictions fail?

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saucer_41The Mayan weren’t the only ones to predict the end of the world. Or rather I should say, those who interpreted the Mayan to have predicted the end of the world aren’t the only ones who have predicted the end of the world.

In the 1950s a Chicago housewife named Dorothy Martin predicted the end of the world to occur in the dawn hours of December 21, 1954. She said she had been receiving messages from Sanada of the planet Clarion that a world flood event would wipe out humanity. Yet at midnight just hours before the devastating flood, a flying saucer from the planet Clarion would arrive near midnight and take them to safety and a new life in outer space.

She had quite a following. Some stayed home and fretted through the night wondering what would happen, but her closest believers, having sold their homes, quit their jobs and left their spouses, held vigil with her in her living room throughout the night. As midnight came and went with no rescue from a flying saucer, the group became increasingly agitated and despondent. After all, the cataclysmic flood was coming and still there was still no rescue. Near four o’clock in the morning, Dorothy received another message from the planet Clarion: There would be no flood. The God of Earth has decided to spare them.

Here’s the interesting thing – prior to the morning of December 21, 1954, their small cult remained in self-isolation. They made no outside contact, nor attempted to convert anyone to their beliefs, and remained suspicious of those who inquired about the end of the world. Yet when the cataclysm came and went without incident, they then called the newspapers and immediately worked to spread the word that earth had been spared, and worked to convert many new believers to their mission.

Leon Festinger, a psychologist, imbedded himself and in the group and relates the story in his book When Prophecy Fails. He describes a few conditions that contribute to continued ardent belief in the face of failed predictions:

  • The belief must be correlated with a behavior or action (selling one’s life possessions)
  • The behavior must be difficult to undo (selling one’s life possessions)
  • The belief must have a specific event associated with it (end of world Dec 21, 1954)
  • The believer must have a social network to support continued belief in the face of failed prediction (they actively recruited new members immediately after the spaceship did not appear)

Here’s my question – what kinds of more sane predictions and associated behaviors do we hold on to in the face of repeated failure?

Incidentally, Dorothy Martin’s own husband, a non-believer, went to bed early and slept soundly through the night.